The goal of the paper, according to co-author and MIT professor of nuclear science and engineering Dennis Whyte, is to create "this framework, where are all the economics are clear, and then we understand what it would mean” for any fusion energy power plant. He added: "If we want this technology to actually be meaningful in the world economy, we have to start getting straight with ourselves about these topics."
The study - titled Criteria for the economic viability of fusion power plants and published in the Journal of Fusion Energy - proposes ten parameters for evaluating the economic viability of a fusion energy power plant. Some of these are scientific and physical, dealing with the energy consumed and produced in a given plant. Most of the parameters are in the realm of engineering and economics, such as the costs of plant construction.
The parameters in the framework describe engineering features of the fusion power plant such as power density, the efficiency of converting fusion power into an economic product, and the durability of components used in the energy conversion, in addition to costing and market parameters that assess the expenses and returns from invested capital.
"This framework and its associated model are able to provide new insights into the design space of future fusion power plants (FPPs) independent of specific knowledge of their technologies," the paper says. "It confirms that low-cost financing will be necessary to the economic success of any new FPP, it highlights the importance of the replacement cost and frequency of the control surface of the fusion reaction, and it overturns the idea that a very low power density will allow a FPP to become economically viable. We hope that the simplicity, flexibility, and transparency of this model will make it a staple in the fusion development space."
Co-author Andrew Lo, a professor of finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management, said: "It's challenging to reduce complex scientific and engineering requirements to economic consequences. But if we don't do that, we're not going to get the funding we need to achieve the impact we want."
Researchers have tried a variety of methods for generating and containing fusion energy. The paper's framework, Whyte says, is "completely agnostic to whatever fusion concept you use, because the physical reality of fusion is that you expend money to build the capability to produce fusion power." The parameters do not depend on the size of any reactor being built; the framework is set up so that any inputs can be scaled to a given project or power output.
"It doesn't matter whether the fusion power plant is small or large, the bottom line is: In both cases you better have money coming out that exceeds the money going in, otherwise it's not going to be around for very long," Lo said. "It's pretty clear that economic viability is something we can start assessing now."
Whyte added: "When you've got a framework to evaluate it in a quantitative way, it tells you about the literal worth of making a particular design decision. That seems to me at this moment of fusion development absolutely critical, and what we've been missing."
Whyte is a former head of MIT's Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering and a former director of MIT's Plasma Science and Fusion Center. He co-founded Commonwealth Fusion Systems, an MIT spinoff firm. Whyte and Lo also co-founded Rutherford Energy Ventures, a consultancy and investment advisory firm, which is working with the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory to build a consortium for new fusion research.
Key appointment
Whyte has been appointed CEO of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) following an open international recruitment process, taking up the role later this year. With UKAEA’s Culham Campus continuing to grow as a world-leading hub for fusion research and innovation, Whyte will lead a workforce of more than 2,600 people across four sites and will provide leadership to UKAEA which includes the national laboratory and UK Fusion Energy Ltd. He will oversee the organisation’s high-impact scientific and engineering work in fusion research and development, advance commercial pathways, strengthen international and industry partnerships and translate scientific innovation into practical outcomes.
"I am excited to be joining the exceptional team at UKAEA, which has a compelling plan for delivering commercial fusion energy, developing key technologies for fusion energy extraction, and the largest workforce in the world committed to advancing the development of fusion science and engineering in its widest forms," Whyte said. "My goal at MIT has been to develop bold innovators, not just scientists. Innovation happens when technical rigour meets entrepreneurial ambition. That mindset has helped launch breakthrough technologies, such as high-temperature superconducting magnets, from laboratory concepts into compelling efforts in the commercial space. This shows how education can accelerate the transition from fundamental science to real-world impact, all while inspiring the next generation of leaders who treat energy security with urgency."
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